Center for Outcomes Research; Department of Surgery
Biostatistics | Cardiology | Cardiovascular Diseases | Clinical Epidemiology | Epidemiology | Health Services Administration | Health Services Research
Most risk stratification methods use expert opinion to identify a fixed number of clinical variables that have prognostic significance. In this study our goal was to develop improved metrics that utilize a variable number of input parameters. We first used Bootstrap Lasso Regression (BLR) - a Machine Learning method for selecting important variables - to identify a prognostic set of features that identify patients at high risk of death 6-months after presenting with an Acute Coronary Syndrome. Using data derived from the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) we trained a logistic regression model using these features and evaluated its performance on a development set (N = 43,063) containing patients who have values for all features, and a separate dataset (N = 6,363) that contains patients who have missing feature values. The final model, Ridge Logistic Regression with Variable Inputs (RLRVI), uses imputation to estimate values for missing features. BLR identified 19 features, 8 of which appear in the GRACE score. RLRVI had modest, yet statistically significant, improvement over the standard GRACE score on both datasets. Moreover, for patients who are relatively low-risk (GRACE < /=87), RLRVI had an AUC and Hazard Ratio of 0.754 and 6.27, respectively, vs. 0.688 and 2.46 for GRACE, (p < 0.007). RLRVI has improved discriminatory performance on patients who have values for the 8 GRACE features plus any subset of the 11 non-GRACE features. Our results demonstrate that BLR and data imputation can be used to obtain improved risk stratification metrics, particularly for patients who are classified as low risk using traditional methods.
Cardiology, Medical research
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Copyright © The Author(s) 2019. Open Access: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
DOI of Published Version
Sci Rep. 2019 Oct 10;9(1):14631. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-50933-3. Link to article on publisher's site
Myers PD, Huang W, Anderson FA, Stultz CM. (2019). Choosing Clinical Variables for Risk Stratification Post-Acute Coronary Syndrome. Open Access Publications by UMass Chan Authors. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50933-3. Retrieved from https://escholarship.umassmed.edu/oapubs/4030
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
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