UMMS Affiliation
Meyers Primary Care Institute; Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine
Publication Date
4-2013
Document Type
Article
Subjects
Atrial Fibrillation; Incidence
Disciplines
Cardiology | Cardiovascular Diseases | Epidemiology | Health Services Research
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual-level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment-Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5-year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.765; 95% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C-statistic, 0.767; 95% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, -0.0032; 95% CI, -0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C-statistic, 0.664; 95% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C-statistic, 0.705; 95% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.
CONCLUSION: A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.
Keywords
UMCCTS funding
Rights and Permissions
Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley-Blackwell. This is an Open Access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
DOI of Published Version
10.1161/JAHA.112.000102
Source
J Am Heart Assoc. 2013 Mar 18;2(2):e000102. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.112.000102. Link to article on publisher's site
Journal/Book/Conference Title
Journal of the American Heart Association
Related Resources
PubMed ID
23537808
Repository Citation
Alonso, Alvaro; McManus, David D.; and CHARGE‐AF Consortium, "Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium" (2013). Meyers Primary Care Institute Publications and Presentations. 657.
https://escholarship.umassmed.edu/meyers_pp/657
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 License
Included in
Cardiology Commons, Cardiovascular Diseases Commons, Epidemiology Commons, Health Services Research Commons
Comments
Full author list omitted for brevity. For the full list of authors, see article.