UMMS Affiliation

Department of Medicine, Division of Geriatric Medicine; Meyers Primary Care Institute

Publication Date


Document Type



Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Data Collection; Drug Prescriptions; Drug Utilization; Fee-for-Service Plans; Female; Forecasting; Health Expenditures; Humans; Insurance, Pharmaceutical Services; Male; Medicare; Models, Statistical; United States


Health Services Research | Primary Care


MCBS data are used to analyze the predictability of drug expenditures by Medicare beneficiaries. Predictors include demographic characteristics and measures of health status, the majority derived using CMS' diagnosis cost group/hierarchical condition category (DCG/HCC) risk-adjustment methodology. In prospective models, demographic variables explained 5 percent of the variation in drug expenditures. Adding health status measures raised this figure between 10 and 24 percent of the variation depending on the model configuration. Adding lagged drug expenditures more than doubled predictive power to 55 percent. These results are discussed in the context of forecasting, and risk adjustment for the proposed new Medicare drug benefit.


Health Care Financ Rev. 2003 Winter;25(2):37-46. Link to article on publisher's website

Journal/Book/Conference Title

Health care financing review


At the time of publication, Becky Briesacher was not yet affiliated with the University of Massachusetts Medical School.

Related Resources

Link to Article in PubMed

PubMed ID




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