Department of Radiology
Diagnosis | Infectious Disease | Radiology | Virus Diseases
Although chest CT has been discussed as a first-line test for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), little research has explored the implications of CT exposure in the population. To review chest CT protocols and radiation doses in COVID-19 publications and explore the number needed to diagnose (NND) and the number needed to predict (NNP) if CT is used as a first-line test.
Materials and Methods
We searched nine highly cited radiology journals to identify studies discussing the CT-based diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia. Study-level information on the CT protocol and radiation dose was collected, and the doses were compared with each national diagnostic reference level (DRL). The NND and NNP, which depends on the test positive rate (TPR), were calculated, given a CT sensitivity of 94% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 91%–96%) and specificity of 37% (95% CI: 26%–50%), and applied to the early outbreak in Wuhan, New York, and Italy.
From 86 studies, the CT protocol and radiation dose were reported in 81 (94.2%) and 17 studies (19.8%), respectively. Low-dose chest CT was used more than twice as often as standard-dose chest CT (39.5% vs.18.6%), while the remaining studies (44.2%) did not provide relevant information. The radiation doses were lower than the national DRLs in 15 of the 17 studies (88.2%) that reported doses. The NND was 3.2 scans (95% CI: 2.2–6.0). The NNPs at TPRs of 50%, 25%, 10%, and 5% were 2.2, 3.6, 8.0, 15.5 scans, respectively. In Wuhan, 35418 (TPR, 58%; 95% CI: 27710–56755) to 44840 (TPR, 38%; 95% CI: 35161–68164) individuals were estimated to have undergone CT examinations to diagnose 17365 patients. During the early surge in New York and Italy, daily NNDs changed up to 5.4 and 10.9 times, respectively, within 10 weeks.
Low-dose CT protocols were described in less than half of COVID-19 publications, and radiation doses were frequently lacking. The number of populations involved in a first-line diagnostic CT test could vary dynamically according to daily TPR; therefore, caution is required in future planning.
Coronavirus, Tomography, X-Ray Computed, Radiation Dosage, Mass Screening, Clinical Protocols
Rights and Permissions
Copyrights © 2021 The Korean Society of Radiology. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
DOI of Published Version
Lee JH, Hong H, Kim H, Lee CH, Goo JM, Yoon SH. CT Examinations for COVID-19: A Systematic Review of Protocols, Radiation Dose, and Numbers Needed to Diagnose and Predict. J Korean Soc Radiol. 2021 Nov;82(6):1505-1523. https://doi.org/10.3348/jksr.2021.0096
Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
Hyuk Lee J, Hong H, Kim H, Hyun Lee C, Mo Goo J, Yoon SH. (2021). CT Examinations for COVID-19: A Systematic Review of Protocols, Radiation Dose, and Numbers Needed to Diagnose and Predict. COVID-19 Publications by UMass Chan Authors. https://doi.org/10.3348/jksr.2021.0096. Retrieved from https://escholarship.umassmed.edu/covid19/385
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 License