UMMS Affiliation

Department of Microbiology and Physiological Systems; Program in Bioinformatics and Integrative Biology

Publication Date


Document Type



Diagnosis | Infectious Disease | Pediatrics | Virus Diseases | Viruses


Rapid diagnostic tools for children with Ebola virus disease (EVD) are needed to expedite isolation and treatment. To evaluate a predictive diagnostic tool, we examined retrospective data (2014-2015) from the International Medical Corps Ebola Treatment Centers in West Africa. We incorporated statistically derived candidate predictors into a 7-point Pediatric Ebola Risk Score. Evidence of bleeding or having known or no known Ebola contacts was positively associated with an EVD diagnosis, whereas abdominal pain was negatively associated. Model discrimination using area under the curve (AUC) was 0.87, which outperforms the World Health Organization criteria (AUC 0.56). External validation, performed by using data from International Medical Corps Ebola Treatment Centers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during 2018-2019, showed an AUC of 0.70. External validation showed that discrimination achieved by using World Health Organization criteria was similar; however, the Pediatric Ebola Risk Score is simpler to use.


Ebola virus disease, West Africa, children, risk prediction score, viruses

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Emerging Infectious Diseases is a publication of the U.S. Government. This publication is in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from this work may be reprinted freely. Use of these materials should be properly cited.

DOI of Published Version



Genisca AE, Chu TC, Huang L, Gainey M, Adeniji M, Mbong EN, Kennedy SB, Laghari R, Nganga F, Muhayangabo RF, Vaishnav H, Perera SM, Colubri A, Levine AC, Michelow IC. Risk Prediction Score for Pediatric Patients with Suspected Ebola Virus Disease. Emerg Infect Dis. 2022 Jun;28(6):1189-1197. doi: 10.3201/eid2806.212265. PMID: 35608611; PMCID: PMC9155869. Link to article on publisher's site

Journal/Book/Conference Title

Emerging infectious diseases

Related Resources

Link to Article in PubMed

PubMed ID