UMMS Affiliation

Department of Medicine, Division of Geriatric Medicine; Meyers Primary Care Institute

Date

5-6-2004

Document Type

Article

Medical Subject Headings

Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Data Collection; Drug Prescriptions; Drug Utilization; Fee-for-Service Plans; Female; Forecasting; Health Expenditures; Humans; Insurance, Pharmaceutical Services; Male; Medicare; Models, Statistical; United States

Disciplines

Health Services Research | Primary Care

Abstract

MCBS data are used to analyze the predictability of drug expenditures by Medicare beneficiaries. Predictors include demographic characteristics and measures of health status, the majority derived using CMS' diagnosis cost group/hierarchical condition category (DCG/HCC) risk-adjustment methodology. In prospective models, demographic variables explained 5 percent of the variation in drug expenditures. Adding health status measures raised this figure between 10 and 24 percent of the variation depending on the model configuration. Adding lagged drug expenditures more than doubled predictive power to 55 percent. These results are discussed in the context of forecasting, and risk adjustment for the proposed new Medicare drug benefit.

Rights and Permissions

Citation: Health Care Financ Rev. 2003 Winter;25(2):37-46. Link to article on publisher's website

Comments

At the time of publication, Becky Briesacher was not yet affiliated with the University of Massachusetts Medical School.

Related Resources

Link to Article in PubMed

PubMed ID

15124376

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.