Department of Medicine, Division of Geriatric Medicine; Meyers Primary Care Institute
Medical Subject Headings
Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Data Collection; Drug Prescriptions; Drug Utilization; Fee-for-Service Plans; Female; Forecasting; Health Expenditures; Humans; Insurance, Pharmaceutical Services; Male; Medicare; Models, Statistical; United States
Health Services Research | Primary Care
MCBS data are used to analyze the predictability of drug expenditures by Medicare beneficiaries. Predictors include demographic characteristics and measures of health status, the majority derived using CMS' diagnosis cost group/hierarchical condition category (DCG/HCC) risk-adjustment methodology. In prospective models, demographic variables explained 5 percent of the variation in drug expenditures. Adding health status measures raised this figure between 10 and 24 percent of the variation depending on the model configuration. Adding lagged drug expenditures more than doubled predictive power to 55 percent. These results are discussed in the context of forecasting, and risk adjustment for the proposed new Medicare drug benefit.
Rights and Permissions
Citation: Health Care Financ Rev. 2003 Winter;25(2):37-46. Link to article on publisher's website
Wrobel, Marian V.; Doshi, Jalpa A.; Stuart, Bruce; and Briesacher, Becky A., "Predictability of prescription drug expenditures for Medicare beneficiaries" (2004). Meyers Primary Care Institute Publications and Presentations. 322.