The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report
UMass Chan Affiliations
Department of MedicineDocument Type
Journal ArticlePublication Date
2020-12-01Keywords
COVID-19SARS-CoV-2
epidemiology
modelling
pandemic
Disease Modeling
Epidemiology
Immunology and Infectious Disease
Infectious Disease
Mathematics
Microbiology
Virus Diseases
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Show full item recordAbstract
We previously described a mathematical model to simulate the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and try to predict how this outbreak might evolve in the following two months when the pandemic cases will drop significantly. Our original paper prepared in March 2020 analyzed the outbreaks of COVID-19 in the US and its selected states to identify the rise, peak, and decrease of cases within a given geographic population, as well as a rough calculation of accumulated total cases in this population from the beginning to the end of June 2020. The current report will describe how well the later actual trend from March to June fit our model and prediction. Similar analyses are also conducted to include countries other than the US. From such a wide global data analysis, our results demonstrated that different US states and countries showed dramatically different patterns of pandemic trend. The values and limitations of our modelling are discussed.Source
Tang Y, Tang S, Wang S. The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report. Emerg Microbes Infect. 2020 Dec;9(1):2465-2473. doi: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1843973. PMID: 33121387; PMCID: PMC7671649. Link to article on publisher's site
DOI
10.1080/22221751.2020.1843973Permanent Link to this Item
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14038/27354PubMed ID
33121387Related Resources
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© 2020 The Author(s). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Distribution License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1080/22221751.2020.1843973
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © 2020 The Author(s). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.