Performance of the GRACE Risk Score 2.0 Simplified Algorithm for Predicting 1-Year Death After Hospitalization for an Acute Coronary Syndrome in a Contemporary Multiracial Cohort
Center for Outcomes Research; Department of Quantitative Health Sciences; Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine
Cardiology | Cardiovascular Diseases | Health Services Research
The GRACE Risk Score is a well-validated tool for estimating short- and long-term risk in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). GRACE Risk Score 2.0 substitutes several variables that may be unavailable to clinicians and, thus, limit use of the GRACE Risk Score. GRACE Risk Score 2.0 performed well in the original GRACE cohort. We sought to validate its performance in a contemporary multiracial ACS cohort, in particular in black patients with ACS. We evaluated the performance of the GRACE Risk Score 2.0 simplified algorithm for predicting 1-year mortality in 2,131 participants in Transitions, Risks, and Actions in Coronary Events Center for Outcomes Research and Education (TRACE-CORE), a multiracial cohort of patients discharged alive after an ACS in 2011 to 2013 from 6 hospitals in Massachusetts and Georgia. The median age of study participants was 61 years, 67% were men, and 16% were black. Half (51%) of the patients experienced a non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and 18% STEMI. Eighty patients (3.8%) died within 12 months of discharge. The GRACE Risk Score 2.0 simplified algorithm demonstrated excellent model discrimination for predicting 1-year mortality after hospital discharge in the TRACE-CORE cohort (c-index = 0.77). The c-index was 0.94 in patients with STEMI, 0.78 in those with NSTEMI, and 0.87 in black patients with ACS. In conclusion, the GRACE Risk Score 2.0 simplified algorithm for predicting 1-year mortality exhibited excellent model discrimination across the spectrum of ACS types and racial/ethnic subgroups and, thus, may be a helpful tool to guide routine clinical care for patients with ACS.
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Citation: Huang W, FitzGerald G, Goldberg RJ, Gore J, McManus RH, Awad H, Waring ME, Allison J, Saczynski JS, Kiefe CI, Fox KA, Anderson FA, McManus DD; TRACE-CORE Investigators. Performance of the GRACE Risk Score 2.0 Simplified Algorithm for Predicting 1-Year Death After Hospitalization for an Acute Coronary Syndrome in a Contemporary Multiracial Cohort. Am J Cardiol. 2016 Jul 29. pii:S0002-9149(16)31238-3. doi: 10.1016/j.amjcard.2016.07.029. [Epub ahead of print] PubMed PMID: 27561191. Link to article on publisher's website
Huang, Wei; FitzGerald, Gordon; Goldberg, Robert J.; Gore, Joel M.; McManus, Richard H.; Awad, Hamza H.; Waring, Molly E.; Allison, Jeroan J.; Saczynski, Jane S.; Kiefe, Catarina I.; Fox, Keith A. A.; Anderson, Frederick A. Jr.; McManus, David D.; and TRACE-CORE Investigators, "Performance of the GRACE Risk Score 2.0 Simplified Algorithm for Predicting 1-Year Death After Hospitalization for an Acute Coronary Syndrome in a Contemporary Multiracial Cohort" (2016). GRACE Publications. 125.